Howard's 6-Year Deal Has Risks

Jimmy Howard signed a deal worth $5.3 million a year today with the Detroit Red Wings, a move meant to keep Jimmah in Detroit for the next six years. The Red Wings have certainly locked up a very capable goaltender that has stole some games in this lockout shortened season.

But here's the thing; we all have questions on if the deal was good or bad. As we've pointed out before, his cap hit is tenth most among starting NHL goalies, which means he is at the bottom of the top third of the highest paid goaltenders in the NHL. That mad sense, right? Keep up with me.

A $5.3 million cap hit isn't a concern at all because the Red Wings have a buttload of cap space. The only thing that might be a concern is the length of the deal. Is $5.3 million a good deal right now? Of course. Howard has played well and earned a big pay raise. He is a clear cut starting goalie that has made the all star game already. He is a goalie that the team has to be comfortable with in their time of retooling.

However, do you really want a 35 year old Jimmy Howard making $5.3 million per season? Obviously that is yet to be seen, but my thinking is that a 35 year old had better be a stud - think Marty Brodeur. You don't see a ton of very successful 35+ goaltenders anymore; most are in their twenties.

What you have to keep in mind is that he doesn't have to be in Detroit the next six years if things don't go well. If Ken Holland is still around maybe he will actually make a move, although it's doubtful. The Red Wings also still have some pretty decent prospects between the pipes in Grand Rapids' Petr Mrazek, Saginaw's Jake Paterson and the potential signing of Northern Michigan's Alex Coreau. If they step up, they paly, no matter Jimmy's cap hit.

The bottom line is if they didn't give Howard what he wanted and he left, the Wings were uber screwed. None of those guys are ready to play yet and Jonas Gustavsson is basically a nightmare in net. Do you see any great free agent goalies out there? Probably not. Actually, definitely not.

On the open market Howard would have got a lot more than $5.3 million. I'd say the Red Wings got him for a bargain. Get ready for six more years of Jimmy.

Six! More! Years!

                In case you missed it, and I’m not entirely sure you could have, the Great and Mighty Twitter has erupted. A minor eruption, but an eruption all the same. According to Aaron Ward of TSN (and other secondary sources too numerous to list) the Wings are close to or have re-signed Jimmy Howard to 6 years/5.3 mil per. (And then they weren’t close and then they were. As of this writing it seemed a done deal.)

                For some reason this made the Twitter angry. “We shouldn’t spend that much on a goalie, we have other guys to re-sign! He’s not elite! That's not the Red Wings' way!” said the Twitter, and for some reason people thought it made sense. People who must surely realize hallmarks of the "Red Wings' way," impenetrable defense and Homer in the net offense, have passed. People who have watched this team night in, night out and commented on innumerable occasions that Jimmy was the only thing keeping us in it. The only Wing who showed up. The only Wing worth mentioning.

                And thus I think a fitting place to start with a rebuttal to the anti-Jimmy-Contract Twitter storm is the unmentionables. We are a team that signed Samuelsson and Quincey to $3 million contracts EACH (nearly 4mil for Quincey). And while everyone and their mother agrees this was an idiotic thing to do, it doesn’t change that we threw over $6 million at two of the least useful players to pull on a Red Wings’ sweater in recent memory. Another guy, Colaiacovo, is getting $2.5 million to exist on the very edges of the collective memory of our fandom . If you’re Jimmy Howard, and you play your heart and soul out nightly to keep this team in games they often have no business being in, what do you do if that goes unrequited? What do you do if the team you give your all for doesn’t think you’re worth at least double Carlo Colaiacovo?

                First I would take a minute to feel properly insulted. Then, I would look at a goalie roster that includes Jonas “I think flopping around like a scared puppet is a sound goaltending strategy” Gustavsson and the inexperienced young guy Mrazek and say, simply: “Well, maybe you can trade for Luongo. I’m sure you can justify *that* cap hit, right?” And I’d walk away. I wouldn’t even look back.

                The scenario is a nightmare and we all know it. There’s no one who is going to replace what Jimmy does for us for the price Jimmy is willing to accept. Not right now, at least. End of. And while I still have major doubts about Jimmy in the postseason, this is the first season in a while that we finally see what it’s like not to assume the postseason is a given. This season began a new era, where we can’t coast by on an incredible defense or solid offense. We need a regular season goalie before we can even dream of the playoffs. That’s Jimmy, and in my mind that’s the end of the argument. This contract, should it come with that number, is a necessity.

                Which brings us to the “What Now?” portion of our day. According to everyone’s favorite bearer of bad news, CapGeek.com, Jimmy’s potential deal would leave us with about $12 million (we could add several million more if we buy out some…*ahem* less than ideal signings). $12 million to sign a fair few people (here’s the link if you want to see for yourself http://www.capgeek.com/redwings/cap-calculator/). The issue is more specific than what now, it’s: Who’s the odd man (men) out? This is my dream, folks:

                Not re-signing Filppula is a given (in my mind at least). Maybe he’ll fly off to a place we dare not mention, and maybe there he’ll win a trophy that breaks our hearts. Maybe afterward he’ll end up on Florida, or Phoenix, or some other team who is so firmly embedded in NHL obscurity we’re not even sure if they’re real anymore. Yes, maybe he’ll pull a Kopecky (who is getting paid $3 million a year, for anyone keeping score of bad deals at home.) In any event, it’s Filppula’s business. For the good of the Red Wings, it can no longer be our business.

                Another given is buyouts (compliance buyouts for EVERYONE! Or…two guys). This is the fun part, where we get to imagine we’ve never heard of certain guys

.

                Quincey who? ($3.775 million)

                Samuelsson who? ($3 million)

                Carlo I can't spell his last name to save my life who? (Ordinary buyout, $2.5 million)

Which brings us to a fairly delicious roughly $21 million available if the Howie deal is signed.

Remind me again why you were so worried about $5.3 million for Howard, Twitter. Remind me.

                It’s good to have our goalie locked for a bit. And if we concentrate on signing our young guys with bright futures, ending this horrible emergency vet signing strategy that saw us bring in Sammy and Cola etc., and picking up one or two above average guys in the offseason then I think next year we have a lot less to fear. And we’re not even going to think about that whole “Pavel’s probably going back to Russia when his contract ends” thing. We are going to crawl back into our safe little “Jimmy for six more years!” bunkers and not think about it even once. Not. Once. Oh god. 

Poll: With Darren Helm Shut Down, is Deadline Decision in Question...?

With Darren Helm now out for the year, management's choice to stand pat at the deadline was...
	Still wise regardless of who was out there.
	Still wise considering who was out there
	Neither hurts or helps our chances of making playoffs
	Careless considering who was out there
	Careless regardless of who was out there
pollcode.com free polls

When the news broke yesterday that Coach Mike Babcock had released a statement confirming the speedy, gritty forward Darren Helm was to be shut down for the rest of the season due to his back issues, there were two things that immediately crossed my mind.  The first came to me as I watched my Twitter feed explode in frustration as, despite the public outcry of regret that we had lost our dear Helmer for the whole season, there wasn't a single person that was surprised about it, myself included.  The second thing that crossed my mind came immediately after, when I realized: If it was so obvious to everyone else in the world that Helmer wasn't going to be back this year, why would Ken Holland and the management/coaching staff wait till now to play it safe and prepare under the assumption that we WOULDN'T have Helm in the lineup?

What this now means is that one of our main roster guys who we desperately needed to get back to bolster the depth lines on the Wings is gone.  That's a big loss to the checking, faceoff (Helm has been pretty consistently at or over 50% at the dot over the last two seasons), and forecheck/puck retrieval game.  Now, the only mainstays left to count on coming back are Todd Bertuzzi and Mikael Samuelsson.  Bert's back is also his issue, and it's impossible to say if he doesn't end up tweaking something further and ending up like Helm, while Sammy just...seems to find new and inventive ways to get himself hurt and not play.

And now, here we are.  The Red Wings have 9 games remaining, and coming into today, they currently sit in 8th in the West.  Most teams have finally caught up to Detroit in games played, but we have Dallas currently over our shoulder just 2 points behind, same GP, and we only play one more time this year.  Needless to say, our entrance into this year's playoffs is less than assured at this juncture.

The point that I'm driving at here is this: Considering that we had roster issues from day one, and then we saw Detroit become absolutely riddled with injuries from which we still have not fully recovered, it begs the question of, 'Was it truly the right call by management--I realize it's not all on Kenny Holland's shoulders--to not kick some tires a little harder and try to pull the trigger on at least one deal to reinforce the lineup before the end of the regular season?

There are some arguments on both sides of this potential debate.  From the viewpoint of standing pat being a wise choice, you concede the fact that, regardless of what the Wings do this year, it is still going to be a 'transitional' year, nothing will change that.  You do not lose a player the caliber of Nicklas Lidstrom and stay as great a force in the league as you were the year before, it is not possible.  Ad to that the retirement of veteran Tomas Holmstrom and the departure of blueliner Brad Stuart, and you've lost 3 key pieces to your lineup.  Trades and free agency do not replace guys like these, at least not fully.  It's easy to look at all those losses and go, "Oh shit, we need to snap up anything on the market that will bite!", but that is irresponsible.  Detroit knows it has great, young talent coming up through the Grand Rapids Griffins and are ready in some cases--such as Nyquist, Tatar, Andersson and Lashoff--and some almost to that point, like Sheahan, just needing a bit more time to marinate in the AHL.  You give some of these guys roster spots to fill the holes and get some NHL playing time and see what they can do, and in some cases you get a nice surprise.  With that, you simply try to weather the storm and if you get into the post-season, well...everything from there begins anew, and you make your own fate.

On the other side, however, you can argue that anything less than a product designed to have the best chance to win itself a Cup that year is a failure.  There's not a single team on opening night that says to itself, "Yeah, we'll just do our best this year, but the Cup? No way.".  It is the goal of every team, every year, and to take actions that will undermine that goal are irrational.  Holes in the lineup? Fill them with the best talent you can.  Someone is underperforming? Advise them that if their play does not improve, they could either be sent down or shopped to another team in a package deal.  Now granted, when you look at the offseason acquisitions Detroit made, the only one I agree with to this point is Jordin Tootoo, as we've needed a player like that since...well, since we won our last Cup, really.  Beyond that, however, the pickups we made were...head-scratchers at best.  With even less options at the deadline, and knowing every team in playoff contention is looking to ramp up their squad with guys from the teams in the Seller's Cellar, the urgency to get something has to be palpable.  There were players at this year's trade deadline that would have made the Red Wings a better team, but for myriad reasons, we did not make the moves.

So now, we rise and fall with what we had available at the beginning, minus one of our best grinders and a great guy on faceoffs.  Helm will sorely be missed, but the Red Wings's fate is not sealed just yet  A few wins and we're in, a few losses and...well, we don't need to think about that JUST yet.

Where everybody knows your name

Everyone knows the names Nyquist, Tatar and Smith: these are arguably the top prospects in the Red Wings organisation, but what about the lesser known ones, like Backman, Jensen, and Jarnkrok? This guy thinks that the Red Wings right now have the deepest prospect pool since, well, ever.

The Red Wings have a tendency so over-ripen prospects in Grand Rapids or overseas (so I’ve heard) like Tomas Tatar, a veteran of 260 AHL games, Jakub Kindl, a veteran of 237 games and is now a regular in the winged wheel uniform and Gustav Nyquist, who’s a case on its own. The latter has his butt marks permanently etched on the Grand Rapids bus, he’s been up and down more times than Datsyuk on a breakaway.

But enough with the clichés, let’s get to the prospects.

Jensen, Backman and Jarnkrok are three of the Red Wings’ most unique prospects. Each brings a unique skillset and different baggage to a prospect pool that already boats a top goaltending prospect (Mrazek), two defensemen that could look like a Suter (Ouellet) and Weber (Sproul) pairing in Nashville in a couple of years and Hossa-lite (Jurco) that has a lot of lights.

Matthias Backman is a smooth skating, puck moving defensemen from Linkoping, Sweden who is playing his second full year with his hometown team, Linkoping, in the Swedish Elite League (SEL). Not overly big at 6’2’’, 176lbs, Backman was picked in the 5^th round, 146^th overall by the Red Wings in 2011. When he was taken, the feeling was that Rafalski, Lidstrom, Stuart and Kronwall were going to play at least three more years, so Red Wings’ management weren’t in a rush to get an NHL-ready defensemen. Backman took his time and developed in Europe for 3-4 years and boy did it pay off. He’s top-10 in scoring for SEL defensemen and is the team’s top-D at 21, which is no small feat. A lot of scouts think he’ll pan out as a top-four defenseman, comparable to Alexander Edler. Not bad for a 5^th rounder.

Nick Jensen is an in-your-face defensemen, drafted in the 5^th round, 150^th by the Red Wings in 2009; apparently, the 5^th round is where the Red Wings pick up defensemen these last years. Not a beast physically at 6’1’’, 195 lbs, he still likes to hit and is a fierce competitor. As Jiri Fischer said, “He’s in people’s faces, he’s taking people’s space away thanks to his skating, and he makes great outlet passes. He’s had a great year and we’re really happy with his development.” Remember John Wickstrom, the Red Wings 5^th rounder defensemen in 1997? No, me neither. Picking in the 5^th round is still a long-shot, but the fact that Jensen was talked about by Pierre McGuire on National TV during the Red Wings vs St-Louis chess match on Sunday means he’s come a long way since being an unknown last year.

And now for the inspiration for this blog post, the guy that gives me hope that new and exciting prospects are a reality. Calle Jarnkrok was picked in the 2^nd round, 51^st overall in 2010. This was after a disappointing 2^nd round lost in the playoff to the San Jose Sharks, who are now on my bitter-list, with Colin Campbell for not allowing Al to swing the octopus in the 2008 playoffs. His style emulates that of one Henrik Zetterberg. That’s right, this 5’11’’, 165lbs center is supposed to be this team’s next number two center as soon as next year.  He’s been playing with Brynas in the SEL, where’s he’s been in the top-2 scoring the last two years for his team. He’s described as a two-way center with a very high hockey IQ and helped his team win the SEL championship last year. This year’s been tougher on Jarnkrok, with him being held pointless while Brynas was eliminated in four games, but he still did finish 8^th in SEL scoring with 42 points. All was not lost for ‘’Iron Hook’’, the Red Wings have assigned him to Grand Rapids for last nine games of the season (he has 2 assists in 6 games while adapting to the North American ice surface) before playing in the World Hockey Championships in his home country of Sweden April 15^th. In maybe what is the understatement of the year, Jarnkrok has a ton of pressure on his shoulders being touted as the next Zetterberg.

With Brendan Smith, Gustav Nyquist and Joakim Andersson graduating from prospects to full-time NHLers, the Grand Rapid Griffins will need some reinforcements to play under coach Blashill and these three prospects will make sure that the Midwest division title has to go through Grand Rapids.